Supplementary Online Information: Endemicity response timelines for Plasmodium falciparum elimination
نویسندگان
چکیده
The Ross-Macdonald Model We use the following simple version of the Ross-Macdonald model. The parameters are described in Box #1. For a longer explanation, see [1]. The change in the PR, the prevalence of infection, is given by the equation: ˙ X = mabZ(1 − X) − rX (1) The change in the sporozoite rate, the fraction of the mosquitoes with sporozoites in their salivary glands, is modeled using the equation: ˙ Z = acX(e −gτ − Z) − gZ (2) This equation ignores the delays between the time when a mosquito becomes infected and when it becomes infectious. For these two equations, the basic reproductive number is: R 0 = ma 2 bc gr e −gτ (3) Because the PR changes on the timescale of about 200 days, and the sporo-zoite changes quickly, on the time scales of about 10 days, we assume that the sporozoite rate is approximately at its steady state with respect to the PR: ¯ Z = acX g + acX e −gτ (4)
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